Introduction: Expansive Influence and a War of Influence Against Paris
How has an authoritarian president like Ilham Aliyev turned to Africa to counter French influence? What does this dynamic mean for diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan, France, and African countries? As COP29 approaches, Aliyev appears determined to redefine his international role, exploiting latent tensions between France and certain African nations. This analysis explores Aliyev’s deep motivations, the methods used, and the implications of an unexpected alignment with anti-French movements in Africa.
Aliyev and Retaliation Policy: A Duel with Emmanuel Macron
Since France publicly supported Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Ilham Aliyev has intensified efforts to counter Paris’s influence. This strategy has translated into visible support for African sovereigntist leaders, including controversial figures like Kemi Seba, an outspoken critic of French policy in Africa. Through this partnership, Aliyev attempts to promote Azerbaijan as an alternative model, able to stand up to Western powers. This alliance is not just a diplomatic symbol; it marks a geopolitical repositioning aimed at establishing Baku as a potential ally for African states eager to free themselves from French influence. French criticism, notably from President Emmanuel Macron, which Aliyev perceives as undermining his legitimacy, has fueled this duel. This personal conflict between the two leaders now affects their countries’ relations with Africa, each camp striving to bolster its support base.
Impact on African Politics: Support for Anti-West Movements
Azerbaijan’s entry into the African scene has significant repercussions for the internal policies of some African countries. In regions marked by a rising tide of anti-Western sentiment, Aliyev’s support for sovereigntist figures helps revive tensions, particularly in former French colonies. For example, in the Central African Republic, where French influence is diminishing in the face of an increased Russian presence, Azerbaijan could hope to strengthen anti-Western coalitions by supporting local figures. Aliyev’s influence could also lead some African governments to favor a diplomacy that is less aligned with the West or even openly hostile. However, this strategy could also trigger internal tensions, with African political elites divided between a desire for greater independence and the need to maintain stable relations with Europe for economic and security reasons.
Evidence and Alliances: Azerbaijan’s Diplomacy in Africa
Aliyev has built an active diplomatic strategy based on alliances and agreements with African nations. Through initiatives such as inviting African leaders to conferences in Baku and signing oil and military agreements, he seeks to anchor Azerbaijan in the diplomatic and economic fabric of the continent. However, these initiatives contrast sharply with Azerbaijan’s internal policies, where Aliyev is regularly accused of repressing journalists and activists by organizations like Human Rights Watch. This gap between the image of a modernizer and authoritarian practices is all the more striking as Azerbaijan prepares to host COP29, a summit theoretically focused on environmental protection, while 36% of its GDP depends on hydrocarbons. This paradox recalls Qatar’s case, host of the previous COP, which, while promoting an ecological discourse, remains an economy reliant on fossil fuels.
Strategic Deployment in Overseas Territories: New Caledonia and Martinique at the Heart of the Game
Aliyev does not limit his influence to African countries but also deploys it in French overseas territories. New Caledonia, Guyana, and Martinique are central to his strategy. By supporting sovereigntist movements and denouncing what he calls “French neocolonialism,” Aliyev adopts a discourse that echoes local resentment towards Paris. In July, Baku even welcomed New Caledonian independence leaders, reinforcing the perception of Azerbaijan as an ally of post-colonial causes. In Martinique, Azerbaijan supports local initiatives against high living costs, discreetly backing protests while maintaining the image of a benevolent mediator. This support opens the door to a range of commercial and cultural partnerships aimed at weakening France’s position in its own territories.
Limits and Criticisms of Azerbaijani Diplomacy
Although Aliyev’s “caviar diplomacy” is gaining influence, it has notable limitations. His alliances with controversial figures like Kemi Seba could alienate certain African governments, especially those keen to maintain good relations with the West. Aliyev’s authoritarian pragmatism could be perceived as harmful interference, especially in countries where civil society is already divided. While some political elites are willing to explore a relationship with Azerbaijan, they risk alienating their electoral base or being criticized for associating with a repressive regime. This approach thus limits the appeal of Azerbaijani diplomacy, as African leaders committed to democratic principles and human rights may hesitate to align too openly with Aliyev.
International Comparisons: An Azerbaijan-Turkey-Russia Axis Against the West
Azerbaijan, Erdogan’s Turkey, and Putin’s Russia share a common interest: challenging Western dominance, and Aliyev has managed to capitalize on this ideological convergence. In August, Putin’s visit to Baku solidified this axis, restoring Azerbaijan to a strategic position in the diplomatic play between Moscow and Ankara. This alignment translates into coordinated diplomacy in Africa, where each actor contributes to weakening French influence. While Wagner operates on the ground to defend Russian interests, Azerbaijan uses diplomacy to court African leaders. This tripartite power play allows Baku to integrate into a broader network that supports the idea of “non-aligned sovereignty” against Western interference. This alignment raises questions about the long-term stability of this axis: how far can Azerbaijan sustain a position so closely aligned with Russia without risking diplomatic isolation?
Perspectives on the Non-Aligned Movement: Azerbaijan as an Emerging Leader
Aliyev, as a former Secretary-General of the Non-Aligned Movement, seeks to position Azerbaijan as a potential leader for developing countries. This movement, which has historically rejected East-West polarization, provides an ideal framework for Aliyev to promote African nations’ autonomy and support their rights to increased sovereignty. By presenting itself as a neutral and autonomous actor, Azerbaijan capitalizes on the idea of a non-aligned bloc capable of challenging the influence of major powers. Baku’s role in this movement, by supporting African initiatives for greater independence, also draws on strong symbolism: Aliyev embodies a form of resistance to Western dominance, echoing the movement’s ideals since its inception. This could confer him additional legitimacy, especially among African states seeking alternative development models.
Risks and Future Scenarios: Durable or Temporary Influence?
Although Aliyev’s strategy in Africa seems well-orchestrated, it is not without risks. Baku’s support for radical figures like Kemi Seba is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it attracts the attention of governments critical of France, but on the other, these alliances could prove volatile if such figures become too uncontrollable. If Aliyev’s relations with African governments were to sour, Azerbaijani influence could quickly crumble, particularly if other non-aligned nations attempt to emulate this model by turning to different figures for support. The question of the sustainability of this influence therefore remains open: can Azerbaijan maintain this presence in Africa without risking a direct confrontation with the West? And what will happen if Aliyev’s African allies decide to leverage these partnerships in their own regional power games?
Conclusion: Durable Influence or a Temporary Political Maneuver?
The implications of Aliyev’s strategy in Africa and beyond go far beyond a simple diplomatic reprisal against Paris. His alliance with regimes and controversial figures could redefine the balance of power in Africa as French influence is increasingly contested. Whether or not this policy will persist over time will depend on a delicate balance between Aliyev’s ambitions, the reaction of Western powers, and the volatility of alliances in Africa. To what extent can Aliyev maintain this influence? And how far will this policy reshape the balance of power between Africa and the West? This complex influence game opens new perspectives for the future of international relations, where old paradigms could be permanently challenged.
© Odon Bulamba / Africa Daily Report
