Summary
As Senegal approaches the early legislative elections on November 17, 2024, a central question emerges: can Ousmane Sonko, leader of the Pastef party, embody lasting change while embracing strategic alliances with former political opponents? These alliances, seen as necessary to secure a parliamentary majority, risk compromising the image of integrity that Sonko and his party have long promoted. Meanwhile, former president Macky Sall and opposition leader Amadou Ba position themselves as formidable rivals, each with a strategy designed to sway this crucial election. This vote may not only redefine Senegal’s political future but could also impact democratic stability across West Africa.
Strategic Alliances for Pastef: Pragmatism or a Renouncement of Core Values?
On November 3, at a rally in Kolda, Ousmane Sonko surprised his supporters by welcoming two prominent figures from Senegal’s former majority, Mame Boye Diao and Abdourahmane Baldé. Coming from Macky Sall’s political orbit, these new alliances raise a critical question: can Sonko claim to represent political renewal while relying on former regime defectors? Pastef has long opposed political “transhumance” — the opportunistic practice of switching political allegiances — as a symbol of corruption. Now, in accepting former opponents into his ranks, Sonko has chosen pragmatism, which could erode the trust of his loyal base.
“Unity and strength are indispensable for rebuilding a just Senegal,” he declared at the rally, a message relayed by Jeune Afrique. Yet, this rhetoric has not assuaged all concerns within Pastef. Some see these alliances as a compromise of the party’s founding values, while others argue that these defections are necessary to secure a robust majority. “Sonko is taking a risk by embracing these defections,” comments an analyst from the African Studies Center in Dakar, adding that this ambiguity could become a vulnerability for Sonko as his rivals, Macky Sall and Amadou Ba, seek to exploit this contradiction.
Macky Sall’s Calculated Return from Marrakech: A Persistent Political Force
Former President Macky Sall, although officially retired from public life and residing in Marrakech, remains a pivotal figure in Senegalese politics. Through the Takku Wallu coalition, Sall has gathered former members of his Alliance for the Republic (APR) and Abdoulaye Wade’s Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) to form a structured opposition force aimed at countering Pastef. This strategic move, albeit indirect, is not only an attempt to limit Sonko’s influence but also to protect his former allies, who are currently facing legal investigations.
For Sall, the coalition also serves as a way to retain influence over segments of the Senegalese electorate, particularly those who question the sincerity of Sonko’s alliances. According to a report by the International Crisis Group, the Takku Wallu coalition could destabilize Senegal’s political landscape and thwart Sonko’s ambitions to gain a majority in parliament by reclaiming APR’s traditional voter base. “If Takku Wallu can gain traction, it could weaken Pastef and prevent Sonko from implementing his ambitious reforms,” notes a local political analyst.
Amadou Ba: A Tough Critic of Political Defections and a Strategic Opponent
In this evolving political landscape, Amadou Ba, former Prime Minister and leader of the Jamm Ak Njarin coalition, stands as a formidable rival for Sonko. With a message centered on transparency and integrity, Ba openly criticizes Pastef’s alliances and Sonko’s stance on political defections. “Senegal deserves leaders who are consistent and sincere, not alliances of convenience,” he stated in an interview with Africa Report, denouncing what he perceives as Sonko’s political opportunism.
Ba’s strategy is to position himself as a credible alternative, appealing to an increasingly skeptical electorate. Ba’s commitment to consistent values has resonated with voters who feel disillusioned by Sonko’s compromises. “Amadou Ba is positioning himself as the conscience of Senegalese politics,” says a political science professor from Cheikh Anta Diop University, highlighting that Ba’s stance could prove decisive for voters seeking stability.
An Election with Economic and Social Repercussions: A Question of Stability
Beyond the political strategies, the 2024 legislative elections are crucial for Senegal’s economic and social future. The country, facing rising inflation and high unemployment, is looking to its leaders for reforms that will drive development. A victory for Pastef could allow Sonko to implement his program, which focuses on wealth redistribution and social justice.
However, a divided parliament could also foster a balanced political environment, reassuring investors and encouraging more moderate governance. “Political stability is essential to maintain investor confidence,” remarks a World Bank economist. “If Senegal can preserve a stable government, it could strengthen its position as an economic and political model in the region.”
Senegal: A Democratic Model for West Africa?
The stakes of this election extend beyond Senegal’s borders. In a West Africa where neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Mali face ongoing political crises, Senegal is seen as a pillar of democratic stability. The success or failure of this political transition could, therefore, have regional repercussions.
According to an International Crisis Group expert, “Senegal is one of the few countries in the region that has maintained its stability. If Sonko can establish an inclusive government, it may inspire other nations seeking stability.” This election, while focused on Senegal, is perceived as a barometer for democracy in West Africa and could influence political dynamics in other states across the region.
Public Sentiment: Between Hope and Skepticism
Against this backdrop of political change, the Senegalese people express mixed feelings. While some view Sonko as a symbol of hope and renewal, others worry about the compromises he seems willing to make to gain power. “We want real change, but not at any cost,” says Mamadou, a merchant in Dakar. His perspective reflects a growing skepticism among voters, who long for leaders committed to real reforms without sacrificing core values.
This public sentiment adds a layer of reality to the analysis, underscoring the need for political leaders to meet the expectations of a populace increasingly weary of political maneuvering.
Conclusion: Senegal at a Democratic Crossroads
On the eve of these critical legislative elections, Senegal stands at a pivotal point. Ousmane Sonko must prove that his party can lead lasting change while upholding the values of integrity that have fueled its rise. But with Macky Sall’s strategic return and Amadou Ba’s unwavering stance on political defections, Senegal’s democracy is truly being tested.
Will the country be able to retain its status as a democratic model for West Africa? The answer will depend on each camp’s ability to convince a discerning electorate and present a clear, coherent vision for Senegal’s future. In this election, where ethics and strategy are at odds, the future of Senegalese politics — and regional stability — hangs in the balance.
© Odon Bulamba / ADR
