Introduction: A Meeting Under High Tension
For three decades, the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been plagued by relentless violence. This Sunday, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame will meet in Luanda, Angola’s capital, to attempt to unlock the peace process under the mediation of João Lourenço, the Angolan president and African Union (AU)-appointed facilitator. This summit, considered a pivotal moment, stirs both hope and skepticism. As diplomacy struggles to address an unprecedented humanitarian and security crisis, a critical question looms: will this meeting mark a turning point in the troubled history of the Great Lakes region, or will it be another failure in a long series of unsuccessful attempts?
A Complex Conflict: Roots and Stakes
1. A history marked by violence
Since Mobutu’s fall in 1997, eastern DRC has become a battleground involving local armed groups, foreign forces, and international interests. Key players include the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and the March 23 Movement (M23). The FDLR, composed of former Hutu génocidaires who fled to the DRC after Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, are considered an existential threat by Kigali. Meanwhile, M23 rebels, allegedly supported by Rwanda according to the UN, have occupied large parts of North Kivu since 2021.
2. Natural resources at the heart of the conflict
North Kivu, rich in strategic minerals such as coltan, cobalt, and gold, attracts both local and international interests. Kinshasa accuses Kigali of looting these resources to fuel its economy, allegations Rwanda denies, citing the DRC’s failure to secure its territory.
3. A population held hostage
Civilians bear the brunt of the conflict. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 6 million people have been displaced since 1994. In Goma, the provincial capital of North Kivu, overcrowded camps lack food, clean water, and sanitation facilities, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.
Luanda: An Ambitious Mediation Attempt
1. Summit objectives
The Luanda summit focuses on two main goals:
- Neutralizing the FDLR: Kigali views this group as a major threat and demands its dismantling before withdrawing troops.
- Withdrawal of Rwandan forces: Kinshasa insists on the end of Rwandan military intervention in the DRC and disengagement from M23 support.
A strategic document, the Concept of Operations (CONOPs), proposes an ambitious 90-day timeline to achieve these objectives. This plan includes an initial phase of locating and dismantling the FDLR, followed by a joint assessment of progress before the gradual withdrawal of Rwandan forces.
2. Implementation challenges
However, several major obstacles weaken this plan:
- Lack of mutual trust: Kinshasa views Kigali’s intentions as deceitful, while Rwanda doubts the DRC’s ability to eliminate the FDLR.
- Multiplicity of actors: Beyond Rwanda and the DRC, countries like Uganda and Burundi play ambiguous roles, with some accused of supporting armed militias.
- Logistical challenges: Coordinating military operations in such a vast and unstable region is an enormous task.
An Explosive Relationship Between Tshisekedi and Kagame
1. Combative rhetoric
Relations between the two presidents have deteriorated over the years. Félix Tshisekedi accuses Paul Kagame of supporting M23 and waging aggression against the DRC. In a speech to the Congolese Parliament, he labeled Rwanda and M23 as “enemies of the Republic.” Kagame, on the other hand, has warned that Rwanda will defend its interests “without asking anyone’s permission.”
2. Reciprocal mistrust
Previous summits, including one in Addis Ababa last February, ended in resounding failures. The personal tensions between the two leaders complicate mediation efforts, with each side entrenched in its position.
Regional and International Players
1. Angola’s role
As a mediator, João Lourenço plays a crucial role in this process. However, his influence is limited by the local complexities and mistrust between the parties.
2. The international community: an impotent actor?
Despite sanctions imposed by the UN, the US, and the European Union on M23 and FDLR leaders, their impact on the ground remains limited. Major powers appear hesitant to become more involved in what they see as a regional issue.
A Conflict With Regional Consequences
1. A threat to regional stability
The involvement of Uganda and Burundi, accused of supporting armed factions, could escalate the conflict across the Great Lakes region. Regionalization of the conflict would jeopardize decades of fragile cooperation among these nations.
2. Economic stakes
Persistent instability hinders foreign investment and stifles economic development in the region. Despite its abundant natural resources, North Kivu remains one of the poorest regions in the world.
Prospects for the Luanda Summit
1. Possible scenarios
- Diplomatic success: If both parties reach an agreement, the summit could lay the groundwork for regional stabilization.
- Failure: Another failure would worsen the conflict and undermine short-term peace prospects.
2. Conditions for success
For the summit to succeed, several conditions must be met:
- A genuine commitment by the parties to uphold signed agreements.
- Increased international pressure to ensure resolutions are implemented.
- A coordinated approach involving all regional actors.
Conclusion: A Decisive Moment for Peace
The Luanda summit represents a glimmer of hope in a conflict defined by decades of suffering. However, its success will depend on the willingness of African leaders to overcome their differences and prioritize peace. If this meeting fails, the consequences for the DRC and the Great Lakes region could be catastrophic, prolonging a cycle of violence and instability.
In the face of such stakes, history will harshly judge the inaction of political leaders. For now, the world watches, and the future of millions of Congolese hangs on a few decisions made in Luanda.
2024 – O Bulamba / ADR
